Possibly the biggest if ever. But there are still games with smaller success on Steam and also a huge potential. It is not the case that you need to develop on consoles. Look at these stats from 2020.
- Over 50% of indie games never make more than $4,000. These games never generate enough revenue to cover the development time and other costs. Learn more
- An average indie game makes $3,947 (this is actually median, average is not a good measure as it’s significantly distorted by top earners).
- Over 2/3 of the games don’t cross $10,000 in life time earnings.
- However, the top 1/3 of the indie games are doing pretty well. Almost every 1 in 5 indie games makes more than $50,000. Still, this might not mean the game is profitable or a good investment. If the development team was any bigger than one person and took over a year to make, chances are these people would have been better off as full time developers for a big studio.
- Top 9% cross the $200k line. Most of these games are probably profitable and a proof that indie games can survive.
- The top 1% of indie games make over $7,000,000!
https://vginsights.com/insights/article/infographic-indie-game-revenues-on-steam
You can also see here that indie games make up 95% of Steam.
https://vginsights.com/insights/article/indie-games-make-up-40-of-all-units-sold-on-steam
So if you do the math, you have a 50% chance of losing all your money. And about a 67% chance of not making over $10K, which probably means it does not cover development costs. However, if you get in the upper 33%, you will be doing okay. The top 20% are going to make over $50K. If your game takes under a year to make, and it's a solo project, this is enough to live off of, even in America (and may be much more lucrative overseas since you're making USD). Granted, you could get a normal programming job and make more, but it's still a livable wage to work for yourself and make art. If you are in the top 9%, then you're making over $200K, so a game that took one person 2 years (or 2 people 1 year) you'd be making in the 6-figures. And if you get lucky to get to the top 1% you will make over $7 million. Honestly, this seems like a good gamble, provided you have a good quality game you have faith in.